Pretty good read here courtesy of http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/ ... n-rankings I also find the idea of moving Ramirez to 1st and giving Green the nod at 3rd to be an interesting idea.



No more making fun of the NL Central, not after the St. Louis Cardinals shocked the baseball world with their wild-card run and postseason dramatics.

But that was 2011. The Cardinals will have to repeat without their best player and their legendary manager. So let's get down to business and see how the Cardinals rate position-by-position with their division rivals. Rankings are based on my own subjective predictions for 2012 performance, including offense, defensive ability, durability and risk. Argue, discuss and debate below in the comments section. (And don't forget to follow me on Twitter @dschoenfield.)

(Here are the other divisions we've done: NL East, NL West, AL East, AL Central. Next week we finish up with the AL West.)

Catcher
1. Yadier Molina, Cardinals
2. Devin Mesoraco/Ryan Hanigan, Reds
3. Geovany Soto, Cubs
4. Jonathan Lucroy, Brewers
5. Rod Barajas, Pirates
6. Humberto Quintero/Jason Castro, Astros

It's hard to believe that Molina is still only 29, but he was just 21 when he reached the majors. By adding some doubles and home runs to his game he had his best all-around season in 2011 and now ranks as one of baseball's top catchers. Soto has alternated good years with the bat with bad ones; it's time for a good one, I suppose, but I'm going to give the edge to the Reds' combo. Mesoraco is a rookie who hit .289/.371/.484 at Triple-A. Hanigan is one of the best backup catchers around and has a career .390 on-base percentage against left-handers; so of course Dusty Baker only gave him 48 plate appearances against lefties in 2011. Lucroy played well in his first full season and ranked as one of the best in the game at framing pitches, according to one study. Castro, Houston's first-round pick in 2008, missed all of 2011 with knee surgery and will miss the start of spring training after foot surgery. His bat is a question mark even if he's healthy.

First base
1. Joey Votto, Reds
2. Lance Berkman, Cardinals
3. Carlos Lee, Astros
4. Garrett Jones, Pirates
5. Bryan LaHair, Cubs
6. Mat Gamel, Brewers

Well, Astros fans, you've finally reached it: The final season of Lee's six-year, $100 million contract. The memories will soon seem nostalgic. Did you know Lee has more RBIs in his career than Hank Greenberg, Pie Traynor, Zack Wheat, Bobby Doerr, Gary Carter, Chuck Klein, Bill Dickey, Joe Kelley, Heinie Manush, George Sisler, Earl Averill, Tony Gwynn, Roberto Alomar, Joe Morgan, Kirby Puckett, Bill Terry, Kiki Cuyler, Hack Wilson or Ryne Sandberg, just to name a few? Anyway, this group lines up pretty cleanly, although I wouldn't be surprised to see LaHair put up good numbers after slugging .664 at Triple-A Iowa.

Second base
1. Brandon Phillips, Reds
2. Rickie Weeks, Brewers
3. Neil Walker, Pirates
4. Jose Altuve, Astros
5. Darwin Barney, Cubs
6. Skip Schumaker/Daniel Descalso, Cardinals

Phillips over Weeks due to durability, consistency and defense. Weeks over Walker due to the better stick. Walker over Altuve since Altuve drew five walks in 57 major league games. Altuve over Barney because he did hit .389 with 42 extra-base hits in 87 games in the minors. Barney over Schumaker and Descalso since that's not even a platoon as both hit left-handed.

Third base
1. Aramis Ramirez, Brewers
2. David Freese, Cardinals
3. Scott Rolen, Reds
4. Pedro Alvarez, Pirates
5. Ian Stewart, Cubs
6. Jimmy Paredes, Astros

Each of these guys has issues. As Dave Cameron wrote on ESPN Insider, the Brewers may be better off moving Ramirez and his lack of range to first base and playing rookie Taylor Green at third. As Freese showed in the playoffs, he can hit if he remains healthy but will remain a big liability in the field. Rolen had a miserable season while fighting a bad shoulder but we have to rank him higher than Alvarez, although I suppose it's possible Alvarez will finally learn to hit those pitches that wiggle. Stewart forgot how to hit with the Rockies last year; a cheap risk for the Cubs to see if he bounces back. Paredes will battle Chris Johnson for playing time, which isn't exactly Ali versus Frazier.

Shortstop
1. Starlin Castro, Cubs
2. Rafael Furcal, Cardinals
3. Clint Barmes, Pirates
4. Zack Cozart, Reds
5. Jed Lowrie, Astros
6. Alex Gonzalez, Brewers

Even with his problems on defense, Castro is the clear No. 1 in this group. Furcal is a health risk after playing just 165 games over the past two seasons; he still received $14 million for two years from the Cardinals, which shows you their desperation to fill a position weak in two-way players right now. Barmes moves from the Astros to the Pirates and brings a solid glove, if not exactly Honus Wagner's bat. Cozart does a little of everything but nothing extraordinary. He carries a better defensive rep than Lowrie, who has an extensive injury history. At least Lowrie has potential with that bat, which is more than you can say for the vet Gonzalez, who at least brings a steady glove with his low OBP. He may make Brewers fans forget Yuniesky Betancourt, however.

Left field
1. Ryan Braun, Brewers
2. Matt Holliday, Cardinals
3. Alex Presley, Pirates
4. J.D. Martinez, Astros
5. Chris Heisey/Ryan Ludwick, Reds
6. Alfonso Soriano, Cubs

If Braun ends up serving his 50-game serving suspension, you can move Holliday up a spot ... or you can leave him second if you remember that he missed 38 games himself in 2011. Presley was never a top prospect, but he's blossomed into a solid line-drive hitter; a repeat of his his .298/.339/.465 rookie line wouldn't surprise me. Martinez is another overachiever, a 20th-round pick in 2009 out of famed baseball factory Nova Southeastern University in Fort Lauderdale who reached the majors two years later after hitting .341 in the minors. Heisey does some things well -- like pop a few home runs -- but is probably exposed as an everyday player. He's actually hit right-handers much better in his career, so maybe Ludwick will play against lefties in an unusual right-right platoon. Soriano posted a .289 OBP. You can ignore that only in fantasy baseball.

Center field
1. Andrew McCutchen, Pirates
2. Drew Stubbs, Reds
3. Nyjer Morgan/Carlos Gomez, Brewers
4. Jon Jay, Cardinals
5. Marlon Byrd, Cubs
6. Jordan Schafer, Astros

McCutchen didn't take a big step forward in 2011, but he's still one of the better players in the National League. If he can consolidate the power and walks and hit closer to .300, he'll be one of the best players in the sport. Morgan and Gomez provided a nice platoon, especially on defense where the Brewers ranked third in baseball with +20 Defensive Runs Saved in center. Stubbs hit .343 when he put the ball in play; unfortunately he struck out 205 times. I guess I'm still in his fan club (pun intended) since I just ranked him second. Byrd is prime trade bait with prospect Brett Jackson waiting in the wings.

Right field
1. Corey Hart, Brewers
2. Carlos Beltran, Cardinals
3. Jay Bruce, Reds
4. Jose Tabata, Pirates
5. David DeJesus, Cubs
6. Brian Bogusevic, Astros

Only five outfielders have hit more home runs than Hart the past two seasons. Bruce is not one of them, although he has matched Hart's total of 57. Bruce was Roberto Clemente in right field in 2010 according to the various defensive metrics, but more Edgard Clemente in 2011. I'm guessing the 2010 season was an outlier. Tabata has eight home runs now in 823 career PAs; he's still just 23, but the power needs to show up.

No. 1 starter
1. Chris Carpenter, Cardinals
2. Yovani Gallardo, Brewers
3. Mat Latos, Reds
4. Matt Garza, Cubs
5. Brett Myers, Astros
6. Jeff Karstens, Pirates

The first four are all class. Any of them could end up being the best pitcher in the division in 2012.

No. 2 starter
1. Zack Greinke, Brewers
2. Johnny Cueto, Reds
3. Jaime Garcia, Cardinals
4. Wandy Rodriguez, Astros
5. Ryan Dempster, Cubs
6. Charlie Morton, Pirates

Of course, that honor could also go to Greinke. Once he returned from his offseason tour with the Globetrotters, he started off "slow" thanks to a high average on balls in play, but in the second half he went 9-3 with a 2.59 ERA. Greinke led the majors in strikeout rate but the one mark against him is that he pitched more than seven innings just twice in his 28 starts. Expect some regression from Cueto after a .249 BABIP and low home run rate. The only question for Garcia is how his arm will respond after jumping from 163 innings as a rookie to 220 in 2011. And this is where I can say something about the Pirates' rotation: It had a 4.21 ERA in 2011 (11th in the NL) but ranked last in innings, last in strikeouts and posted a 5.04 ERA in the second half. Just in case you were wondering why I have Morton ranked sixth.

No. 3 starter
1. Shaun Marcum, Brewers
2. Bud Norris, Astros
3. Adam Wainwright, Cardinals
4. Homer Bailey, Reds
5. Paul Maholm, Cubs
6. James McDonald, Pirates

Wainwright is a wild card as he comes back from Tommy John surgery; I don't think it's fair to him to assume he'll be as good as he was in 2009 and 2010. Ignore his 6-11 record; Norris had a solid campaign. OK, I'm going to admit this: I finally believe in Bailey. He had a 3.21 SO/BB ratio, a better ratio than pitchers like Garza, Garcia, Latos, Matt Cain, C.J. Wilson or Tim Lincecum. Don't be surprised if he has a breakthrough season.

No. 4 starter
1. Randy Wolf, Brewers
2. Mike Leake, Reds
3. Kyle Lohse, Cardinals
4. Travis Wood, Cubs
5. Erik Bedard, Pirates
6. J.A. Happ, Astros

Debate.

No. 5 starter
1. Chris Narveson, Brewers
2. Bronson Arroyo/Aroldis Chapman, Reds
3. Jake Westbrook, Cardinals
4. Jordan Lyles/Henry Sosa, Astros
5. Chris Volstad, Cubs
6. Kevin Correia, Pirates

You know ... the NL Central could come down to which team gets the most out of its fifth starter. And it's safe to say that no team knows exactly what to expect from any of these guys. The most important wild card is Arroyo: A year after winning 17 games his longtime infatuation with the home run turned into an obsession as he allowed 46 of them, tied for the third-most ever in one season. The Reds are grooming Chapman as rotation competition, but considering he walked more than seven batters per nine innings in relief, it's a transition that most scouts believe will end with Chapman back in the pen.

Closer
1. John Axford, Brewers
2. Ryan Madson, Reds
3. Joel Hanrahan, Pirates
4. Jason Motte, Cardinals
5. Carlos Marmol, Cubs
6. Brandon Lyon, Astros

We have three dominant closers, one with a World Series ring who is primed to join their ranks, the stress-inducing Marmol and a guy coming off an 11.48 ERA. Guess which one ranks last? I give Axford the nod as No. 1 over Madson based on a heavier workload in 2011 and over Hanrahan based on a better strikeout rate. And, of course, the best 'stache in the game.

Bullpen
1. Reds -- Sean Marshall, Nick Masset, Bill Bray, Sam LeCure, Logan Ondrusek
2. Cardinals -- Fernando Salas, Marc Rzepczynski, Mitchell Boggs, Lance Lynn, Eduardo Sanchez
3. Brewers -- Francisco Rodriguez, Kameron Loe, Marco Estrada, Jose Veras, Zach Braddock
4. Pirates -- Daniel McCutchen, Chris Resop, Evan Meek, Tony Watson, Jason Grilli
5. Cubs -- Jeff Samardzija, Kerry Wood, James Russell, Marcos Mateo, Scott Maine
6. Astros -- Wilton Lopez, Fernando Rodriguez, Aneury Rodriguez, Sergio Escalona, Juan Abreu

The Reds have a deep pen that include three quality left-handers in Marshall and Bray plus Chapman, if you include him. LeCure is actually a guy who could factor into the rotation at some point and Jose Arredondo is also hanging around. The Cardinals' pen came together during their playoff run and that didn't even include Sanchez, who allowed just 14 hits in 30 innings before going down with a sore shoulder. The Brewers are strong from the right side but don't have a solid option from the left side unless Braddock finally develops.

Intangibles
1. Brewers
2. Reds
3. Pirates
4. Cardinals
5. Cubs
6. Astros

I liked all the strings Ron Roenicke pulled in 2011; I like the support the Brewers got from their fans -- Miller Park was consistently the loudest and most passionate fan base I heard all season. Yes, they have lost Prince Fielder and they may have lost Braun for a third of the season, but that will help keep a chip on their shoulders. The Reds have the most depth in the division, but I don't completely trust Baker to use it in the most optimal manner. The Pirates will play hard and still have youth on their side. The Cardinals will have to win without Albert Pujols, Tony La Russa. Manager Mike Matheny and veterans like Beltran, Furcal and Berkman are big risks considering their ages and/or health histories. Cubs and Astros are in rebuilding mode but both teams should be better than 2011.

Final tally
1. Brewers, 77 points
2. Reds, 73 points
3. Cardinals, 68 points
4. Pirates, 46 points
5. Cubs, 39 points
6. Astros, 33 points

Whoa! Didn't expect that, did you? As much as everyone seems to be building the NL Central as a two-team battle between the Cardinals and Reds, I see the Brewers remaining good enough to be in the thick of the race. They have the fewest questions marks in the rotation and that makes them a decent bet in my book. I agree with other prognosticators who see this division split into two levels. But you never know ... it is, after all, still the NL Central, where anything can happen.

Ha, I was just coming over here to post this for you guys.

I posted this on our board:

I obviously disagree with the Wainwright ranking. Assuming he comes back fully healthy, he's their #1. Even in the category he put Waino in though, how is Marcum and Norris ranked higher?

I also would put Sori at #4 in LF...Presley and Martinez have to show something first. Not saying Sori will be better this season, but I give him the benefit of the doubt to start the year.

The issue with Waino is how will he respond from Tommy John? You are right though, you could slide him to the top of the Cards rotation, and when healthy, the top tier of 3-4 starters in the division, with Carp, Zack, Yo, Latos and Garza, no particular order.

That being said, pitching wins championships. As we saw with what happened with the Cards and Brewers in their series alone. Their bullpen was lock down, even if their starters didnt do so well. ours, not so much.

Have to disagree with CF. Gomez/Morgan platoon is better than Stubbs.

And Chukk still can't figure out how the Brewers should be expected to finish above .500.

shirt wrote:And Chukk still can't figure out how the Brewers should be expected to finish above .500.

ESPN CLEARLY has a well known, well documented Wisconsin sports team bias, dontcha know eh?

So much I didn't know about the various NL central teams in 2012. Musings:

1) The Reds catcher platoon, featuring a rookie and Ryan Hanigan, ranking 2nd. What?
2) Bryan "Tortoise and" LaHair over Gamel. Oh no.
3) So the Cubs are featuring Ian Stewart at 3rd?
4) Ryan Ludwick makes his triumphant return to the NL Central?
5) The Brewers CF platoon is not only way better than Stubbs, but is actually better than McCutcheon too. Sneakily, CF may be their strongest position (other than LF of course).
6) LOL at the Pirates rotation

Scoots0303 wrote:So much I didn't know about the various NL central teams in 2012. Musings:

1) The Reds catcher platoon, featuring a rookie and Ryan Hanigan, ranking 2nd. What?
2) Bryan "Tortoise and" LaHair over Gamel. Oh no.
3) So the Cubs are featuring Ian Stewart at 3rd?
4) Ryan Ludwick makes his triumphant return to the NL Central?
5) The Brewers CF platoon is not only way better than Stubbs, but is actually better than McCutcheon too. Sneakily, CF may be their strongest position (other than LF of course).
6) LOL at the Pirates rotation

1-I don't have the slightest problem with that. They've got one of the top prospects in baseball stepping into a weak class and a very good backup.

2-.331/.405/664 line for LeHair last year in AAA with 38 HR's and then hit .288/.377/.508 in a small sample size in the big leagues.
Basically both are older guys who are unproven in AAA, the difference is, LeHair has more power. I'd put Gamel ahead of him as well, but I don't see it as being unreasonable.

3-Yeah, not a bad guy to take a chance on if you're rebuilding. Former top 10-20 prospect IIRC. It's not like the Cubs are suppose to be good this year. Although with Prince playing 1st for them...errr...wait....

4-Yeah, I can't imagine why you didn't know that. Who doesn't follow the career of Ryan-another shitty player only good in St Louis? Seriously, I'd have to go back and look at what team he's playing for. Pitt I'm guessing? (Actually just looked, fucking Cincy? Huh, can't get worse in LF....).

5-No, it is NOT better than McCutchen. He's one of the top young players in the game. He's on a trajectory similar to Barry fucking Bonds. Just because you add up our two players WAR and compare them to those two doesn't mean our CF duo is better than McCutchen. Sorry, that's just totally, 100 pct ridiculous. McCutchen would easily be our 2nd best position player. Not to mention Morgan and Gomez didn't JUST play CF, they accumulated some of their stats and value by playing at the same time.

It's actually amazing to me that anyone would think we're better off in CF than Pitt. That's the ONE place Pitt is better any team in the NLC and it's not even close. In fact if not for Matt Kemp, there wouldn't be a CF'er in the NL I'd take over McCutchen.

6-They're awful. That they were even decent last year was nothing short of amazing. But, as many of us said, it was largely based on a fluke.


That said, they might have the best group of young flame throwers coming up together in all of baseball. If their top 4 pan out, they're GOING to be a very good team.
Of course....that very rarely happens unless you pitch in Tampa's farm system.

Come on Fan, I think e can all agree that Morgan/Gomez is better than McCutchen. I mean, its not like he has improved every aspect of his game for 3 years now, and has a chance to be a 30/30 player and gold glove CF or anything

dusters wrote:Come on Fan, I think e can all agree that Morgan/Gomez is better than McCutchen. I mean, its not like he has improved every aspect of his game for 3 years now, and has a chance to be a 30/30 player and gold glove CF or anything

Yeah, Scoots is usually on, but he is so far off the fucking radar on that one, it's not even funny. One could make a much stronger argument about McCutchen over BRAUN than our two CF platoon system over one of the budding young 5 tool superstars in the game.

Stubbs is actually pretty good too. He had a little bit of a down year in 2011, but he's solid. He certainly wasn't better than Morgan and Gomez last year, but he very well may be this year.

adambr2 wrote:Stubbs is actually pretty good too. He had a little bit of a down year in 2011, but he's solid. He certainly wasn't better than Morgan and Gomez last year, but he very well may be this year.

Again though, not fair to A-Take a guys career year(Morgan) and B- a platoon situation in which much of the value comes from playing RF as well.

LAST YEAR those two may have been better than Stubbs, but Stubbs is a pretty nice young player, and he's ONE guy, not two. Saving a roster spot, and having one starter has value to it as well. You can't just say our platoon is better. I mean, how many games did Gomez AND Morgan not at least both appear in last year?

Fan174 wrote:

adambr2 wrote:Stubbs is actually pretty good too. He had a little bit of a down year in 2011, but he's solid. He certainly wasn't better than Morgan and Gomez last year, but he very well may be this year.

Again though, not fair to A-Take a guys career year(Morgan) and B- a platoon situation in which much of the value comes from playing RF as well.

LAST YEAR those two may have been better than Stubbs, but Stubbs is a pretty nice young player, and he's ONE guy, not two. Saving a roster spot, and having one starter has value to it as well. You can't just say our platoon is better. I mean, how many games did Gomez AND Morgan not at least both appear in last year?

I argued for our platoon over Stubbs for a few reasons. Yeah, Morgan/Gomez played other positions, when their AB's combined are pretty close to how many Stubbs got. We obviously have better defense in CF than Stubbs has, even though Stubbs is a pretty fast guy. Stubbs isn't very good at getting on base, but he has decent power. In the end they will probably be pretty close, but I would rather have Morgan/Gomez in CF than Stubbs.

Also, last year wasn't Morgan's career year, '09 was when he stole 42 bases and hit .307. I'm not sure what we are going to get with Morgan to be honest. He has two really really good years, but he was pretty bad in '10. He obviously isn't going to be stealing as many bases as he used to, but he could still be a guy he gets on base at a good rate, plays good defense, and hits for a high average.