Top 10 Brewers Prospects
Fangraphs

2010 MLB Record: 77-84 (3rd in the NL Central)
Minor League Power Ranking: 24th (out of 30)

1. Jake Odorizzi, RHP
Acquired: 2008 supplemental 1st round (Illinois HS)
Pro Experience: 3 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: A
Opening Day Age: 21
Estimated Peak WAR: 5.0

Notes: Odorizzi was my favorite prep arm in the 2008 draft and I was more than a little surprised to see the Brewers get him with the 32nd overall selection. He suddenly became the club’s top prospect after second baseman Brett Lawrie was dealt to the Jays. Odorizzi broke out in 2010 after being handled cautiously for the first two years of his pro career. The right-hander spent the entire ’10 season in low-A ball and produced a 2.93 FIP in 120.2 innings. Odorizzi saw his strikeout rate jump to 10.07 K/9, while his control was respectable with him posting a rate of 2.98 BB/9. He also had an average ground-ball rate of 46%. Odorizzi has a four-pitch mix with an 88-93 mph fastball, curveball, slider, and changeup. He may be better off scrapping the slider and focusing on three pitches. The right-hander has room to fill out and could add a few more ticks to his fastball. Odorizzi will likely continue to move slowly and he should spend most of the year in high-A ball. He has the ceiling of a No. 2 or 3 starter.

2. Mark Rogers, RHP
Acquired: 2004 1st round (Maine HS)
Pro Experience: 7 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: AA/AAA/MLB
Opening Day Age: 25
Estimated Peak WAR: 4.0

Notes: Rogers was the fifth overall pick during the 2004 draft. The Maine native had little trouble adjusting to life in pro ball despite signing out of high school. Injuries derailed his career, though, and he missed all of 2007 and 2008 after shoulder surgery. The right-hander has always struggled with his control – both before and after surgery – and he posted a walk rate of 5.56 BB/9 in double-A in 2010. Rogers made his MLB debut late in the season with two relief appearances and two starts. He showcased a solid fastball, as well as respectable secondary offerings: curveball, slider, and changeup. He has the pitches necessary to start but his injury history and lack of fastball command could lead to a career as a high-leverage reliever where he could focus on fastball-curveball. Rogers’ heater has reached the upper 90s in short stints but it has shown good movement when he throws it 92-93 mph. On the mound, Rogers has a strong lower half and utilizes a long stride in his delivery. His command issues come from an inconsistent arm slot and his throwing shoulder often flies open, which elevates his pitches. I’ve also noticed that you can pick up his grips from second base and he may need to shield his glove better.

3. Jeremy Jeffress, RHP
Acquired: 2006 1st round (Virginia HS)
Pro Experience: 5 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: A/A+/AA/MLB
Opening Day Age: 23
Estimated Peak WAR: 3.0

Notes: Jeffress is one of the most talented arms in the system – including the Majors – but the right-hander’s personal demons make him a tough player to rank. He has a fastball that can hit the upper 90s, as well as a good curveball and an OK changeup. Unfortunately, he occasionally telegraphs his breaking ball by throwing it at a slightly different arm slot. The right-hander moved to the bullpen in 2010 and had a lot of success. He could develop into a big league closer as long as his control holds up and he can avoid getting suspended from baseball. After already serving a 100-game suspension for an abuse of drugs, Jeffress is one positive test away from being suspended from baseball for life. The right-hander appears to have cleaned up his act, though, and he made his MLB debut in 2010 with 10 innings out of the bullpen. He should spend 2011 in the Majors, unless he has a poor spring.

4. Kyle Heckathorn, RHP
Acquired: 2009 supplemental 1st round (Kennesaw State)
Pro Experience: 2 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: A/A+
Opening Day Age: 22
Estimated Peak WAR: 4.0

Notes: Heckathorn is an interesting prospect. The right-hander was drafted for his ability to hit the high-90s with his heater with quality control, but he’s never been overly dominant due to an inconsistent slider and below-average changeup. He opened the 2010 season in low-A ball and posted a strikeout rate of just 7.09 K/9. He finished off the season with a 3.12 FIP in 39.0 innings and his strikeout rate dropped to 5.31 K/9. Heckathorn also produces above-average ground-ball numbers. If he cannot continue to improve his secondary pitches, he could end up in bullpen as a high-leverage reliever- likely as a set-up man.

5. Wily Peralta, RHP
Acquired: 2006 non-drafted free agent (Dominican Republic)
Pro Experience: 5 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: A+/AA
Opening Day Age: 21
Estimated Peak WAR: 3.0

Notes: Peralta has had a fair bit of success in the minors despite his youth. He has a strong fastball that can touch the mid-90s, and he also features a slider and changeup. The right-hander breezed through high-A ball in 2010 and posted a FIP of 3.70 and gave up 101 hits in 105.0 innings. After posting a strikeout rate of 10.24 K/9 in 2009 at low-A ball, Peralta’s rate dropped to 6.43 K/9 in ’10. He’s also shown inconsistent control throughout his career. Peralta has a larger frame and a lack of conditioning is a concern even at his young age. He throws with a three-quarter arm slot and does a nice job of making all his pitches look the same as they come out of his hand. He does, though, have a habit of holding onto his changeup too long at times. He also seems to lose concentration at times, which could suggest a career in the ‘pen might be better for him in the long run. But Peralta does get rattled easily so high-leverage situations could be a problem.

6. Cody Scarpetta, RHP
Acquired: 2007 11th round (Illinois HS)
Pro Experience: 3 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: A+
Opening Day Age: 22
Estimated Peak WAR: 3.0

Notes: Scarpetta had a solid season in 2010 while posting a 3.24 FIP and a strikeout rate of 9.98 K/9 in high-A ball. The right-hander made 27 starts and could develop into a real workhorse, but he might need to improve his conditioning a bit to maintain his stuff late into games. Scarpetta flashes a good 89-94 mph fastball and a plus curveball. His changeup has developed to the point where he’s no longer considered a future reliever- as long as he can improve his control (4.71 BB/9 in 2010). Scarpetta utilizes a long stride and throws with a high three-quarters arm slot. There is not a ton of effort in his delivery but he doesn’t have the smoothest throwing motion, which explains the control issues. Although he has a good breaking ball, he has a habit of slowing his arm down when he throws it, which will tip off advanced hitters.

7. Hunter Morris, 1B
Acquired: 2010 4th round (Auburn University)
Pro Experience: 1 season
2010 MiLB Level: A
Opening Day Age: 22
Estimated Peak WAR: 3.5

Notes: Morris was a talented prep hitter who fell to the second round of the 2007 draft due to signability concerns. He headed off to college and his hopes to improve upon his draft status were dashed after an inconsistent college career. In his pro debut, Morris hit .251/.306/.436 in 291 low-A at-bats. He’ll need to be more patience at the plate after posting a walk rate of just 6.4%. He stole seven bases in his debut and has OK speed for a first baseman but he’s not going to steal many bases at the big league level. He could use it to turn some singles into doubles. Morris hits with a wide, well-balanced stance. His bat speed is average, though, so his power is dependent on his strong wrists and good leverage; He clears his hips quickly. Defensively, he has quick feet and a strong arm. His range is above average. Morris is a little soft around the middle so he could lose some range before too long. He should move up high-A in 2011 and could reach double-A.

8. Jimmy Nelson, RHP
Acquired: 2010 2nd round (University of Alabama)
Pro Experience: 1 season
2010 MiLB Level: Rookie
Opening Day Age: 21
Estimated Peak WAR: 3.0

Notes: A big, strong pitcher at 6’6” 235 lbs, Nelson projects as a durable third starter. He struggles with his release point, which creates inconsistent control, but there is little effort in his motion. He throws with a high three-quarter motion and takes a long stride. When he throws 88-93 mph, his heater has some life but it straightens out when he touches the mid-90s. He also shows a good slider and a developing changeup. When he has good command, Nelson generates a lot of ground balls (61% in rookie ball in 2010). He was used as a reliever in his pro debut and posted a strikeout rate of 11.14 K/9 but his numbers were skewed by a .399 BABIP and iffy control.

9. Tyler Thornburg, RHP
Acquired: 2010 3rd round (Charleston Southern U)
Pro Experience: 1 season
2010 MiLB Level: Rookie
Opening Day Age: 22
Estimated Peak WAR: 2.0

Notes: A starter in college, Thornburg has the potential to develop into a set-up man at the MLB level. The right-hander has a fastball in the 89-95 mph range but he struggles to control it. His arm action has a lot of effort to it with a whippy action. He also shows a plus changeup but his breaking ball is below average. He has the potential to produce good K-numbers and solid ground-ball rates. A two-way player at Charleston, Thornburg’s command could take a step forward as he focuses on a single role. He throws with a high arm slot. In his debut, he posted a strikeout rate of 14.66 K/9 in 23.1 innings. If the organization can help him harness his fastball, Thornburg could move quickly, especially if he moves to the ‘pen full time.

10. Caleb Gindl, OF
Acquired: 2007 5th round (Florida HS)
Pro Experience: 4 season
2010 MiLB Level: AA
Opening Day Age: 22
Estimated Peak WAR: 3.0

Notes: Some prospect watchers will prefer Kentrail Davis to Gindl. Both outfielders are undersized but Gindl’s approach and mechanics at the plate impress me a little more. He’s more likely to carve out a nice career as a fourth or platoon outfielder. Gindl utilizes a wide, well-balanced stance but tends to get out on his front foot a little too much, which results in lazy pop flies. His swing produces average bat speed. He doesn’t have great stolen-base speed but he’s a good base runner underway and could stretch some singles into doubles. In 2010, Gindl spent the year in double-A and produced a triple-slash line of .272/.352/.406 in 534 at-bats. He shows nice patience at the plate (10.3 BB%) and has done a nice job of improving his contact rates (K% down from 23.4 to 16.8% from ’09 to ’10). His power output (.134) is short for a corner outfield spot. He can play all three outfield positions but projects better in right field.

Wow does the top of our farm system look weak.

yikes. I knew it wouldn't be pretty, but having Hunter Morris and Jimmy Nelson in the top 10 is scary to think about. Especially since Rogers and Jeffress will not be prosepects for long at all...

onabadger58 wrote:yikes. I knew it wouldn't be pretty, but having Hunter Morris and Jimmy Nelson in the top 10 is scary to think about. Especially since Rogers and Jeffress will not be prosepects for long at all...

What's not to like about Nelson?

UWbrewball wrote:After already serving a 100-game suspension for an abuse of drugs, Jeffress is one positive test away from being suspended from baseball for life.

Also, c'mon Fangraphs, lets work on our facts.

Macha Man wrote:Wow does the top of our farm system look weak.

That's because it is.

trwi7 wrote:

Macha Man wrote:Wow does the top of our farm system look weak.

That's because it is.

It wasn't....

Fan174 wrote:It wasn't....

The thing that sucks is we traded all our offense. Yes, pitching is the problem right now and has been for a while. That has absolutely no bearing on where our weaknesses will be in 2-5 years. I guess the idea is that its always easier to trade arms for offense, but I don't know how I feel about that.

shirt wrote:

Fan174 wrote:It wasn't....

The thing that sucks is we traded all our offense. Yes, pitching is the problem right now and has been for a while. That has absolutely no bearing on where our weaknesses will be in 2-5 years. I guess the idea is that its always easier to trade arms for offense, but I don't know how I feel about that.

To me you try and build a farm system with lots of TALENTED arms(which we have in spades, refined...perhaps not, but talented) and with STAR offensive players.

Offensive prospects are far easier to project, and I just think this farm system took SUCH a huge hit taking away a "potential", but not "potential" like maybe there's a 10 pct chance it can happen, but about as good of a chance of it happening as you can say for any top prospect, guy who can be a star middle of the rotation type hitter.

Fan174 wrote:

trwi7 wrote:

Macha Man wrote:Wow does the top of our farm system look weak.

That's because it is.

It wasn't....

Too bad we can't take back that trade.

trwi7 wrote:Too bad we can't take back that trade.

Are you serious? Thought you were a fan of it?

Fan174 wrote:

trwi7 wrote:Too bad we can't take back that trade.

Are you serious? Thought you were a fan of it?

Here's a sampling of my posts on the trade on brewerfan.net.

He's totally a Doug Melvin guy. Throws about 88 mph.

So looking this over.

1. Giving up our best prospect

2. Already had Tommy John surgery and is 29 with only two more years of control.

3. Has an average fastball under 88 mph in his career.

Safe to say I hate this deal.

No. I just don't feel this team is in a position to be giving up top prospects for non-ace pitchers who only have two years of control left.

1. Owns "plus" fastball velocity?
2. Can throw a quality breaking pitch?
3. Has "solid arm action and delivery"?
4. Is 6-foot-2 or taller?
That whole thing was a joke.

For Marcum the answer is no, yes, no, no.

Not sure I even want to give him a long term deal.

Funny, I don't understand why we always need to win now. Especially when we almost always fail miserably at it.

You should've seen these posts, HiAndTight.

trwi7 wrote:

Fan174 wrote:

trwi7 wrote:Too bad we can't take back that trade.

Are you serious? Thought you were a fan of it?

Here's a sampling of my posts on the trade on brewerfan.net.

He's totally a Doug Melvin guy. Throws about 88 mph.

So looking this over.

1. Giving up our best prospect

2. Already had Tommy John surgery and is 29 with only two more years of control.

3. Has an average fastball under 88 mph in his career.

Safe to say I hate this deal.

No. I just don't feel this team is in a position to be giving up top prospects for non-ace pitchers who only have two years of control left.

1. Owns "plus" fastball velocity?
2. Can throw a quality breaking pitch?
3. Has "solid arm action and delivery"?
4. Is 6-foot-2 or taller?
That whole thing was a joke.

For Marcum the answer is no, yes, no, no.

Not sure I even want to give him a long term deal.

Funny, I don't understand why we always need to win now. Especially when we almost always fail miserably at it.

You should've seen these posts, HiAndTight.

I was so fucking annoyed with the mob like opinions over there I guess I just missed it. And yeah, "HiAndTight" never really tried to hide his identity. I think I've used the identical phrases on both boards.


Anyway, don't mean to be.....disrespectful to anyone else who really follows our system, as I think a few of us on here almost like following the prospects as much as the big league club, but it seems like a good majority of those posters really disliked this deal.


I really didn't even notice your posts though. I really thought you liked it. I hated it. Much would have rather given up....well...I've said this, but anyone not named Gallardo or Braun for him. And I literally mean that. Any-other-player in our system. And you know my man love for Rickie and man....."affection" for Gamel(he's not in that group, but he's also been shit on like a dwarf in a Porta-John and I still don't know why).

Wait, "HiAndTight" is fan?!?

There were quite a few against the trade. People just let stuff go a lot quicker there than here. When someone wont let something go then a mob forms, but thats after the other people who shared your opinion stopped posting since the discussion doesn't really go anywhere.

shirt wrote:Wait, "HiAndTight" is fan?!?

There were quite a few against the trade. People just let stuff go a lot quicker there than here. When someone wont let something go then a mob forms, but thats after the other people who shared your opinion stopped posting since the discussion doesn't really go anywhere.

Not really. Brewerfan.net's a little different than normal. I'm pretty reserved over there, and for all the snide, sarcastic comments that get the "outsiders" bitched at(as I did in that thread) there were quite a few of the "vets" throwing the same thing back at me from the onset.

I think if you have only a couple hundred posts over there, you get some of the guys just telling you opinion as factual. "Nope, you're wrong, this was a good trade...."


But it's a great board for information......just pro's and con's to every place. You don't have to deal with some "brothers" over there....and I mean that in the literal, not racial sense.

Milwaukee Brewers Top 11 Prospects
by Kevin Goldstein

System In 20 Words Or Less: Boy, their big-league rotation is going to be much improved in 2011 (Let's not talk about the system).

Three-Star Prospects
1. Mark Rogers, RHP
2. Cody Scarpetta, RHP
3. Kyle Heckathorn, RHP
4. Wily Peralta, RHP
5. Amaury Rivas, RHP
6. Kentrail Davis, OF
7. Scooter Gennett, 2B
Two-Star Prospects
8. Tyler Roberts, C
9. D'Vontrey Richardson, OF
10. Jimmy Nelson, RHP
11. Hunter Morris, 1B

Nine More:
12. Caleb Gindl, OF: This undersized outfielder has left-handed bench potential.
13. Khris Davis, OF: He showed impressive power and patience in his full-season debut, but he's already 23.
14. Erik Komatsu, OF: Komatsu is another potential bench outfielder thanks to his approach, speed, and left-handedness.
15. Tyler Thornburg, RHP: The third-rounder has power stuff out of a small package, but he profiles better in relief.
16. Cutter Dykstra, 3B: This 2008 draftee had a bounce-back year offensively but has yet to find a defensive home.
17. Logan Schafer, OF: A groin injury and broken foot limited him to just seven games in 2010, but he could move up if he's healthy.
18. Chris Dennis, 1B/OF: This Canadian slugger has raw power and an idea at the plate. However, his long swing leads to plenty of whiffs.
19. Eric Arnett, RHP: This 2009 first-round pick fell apart mechanically during a disappointing full-season debut.
20. Matt Miller, RHP: A fifth-rounder from June, Miller is a tall righty with a good fastball and command but little else.

1. Mark Rogers, RHP
DOB: 1/30/86
Height/Weight: 6-3/220
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Signed: First round, 2004, Mount Ararat HS (ME)
2010 Stats: 3.71 ERA (111.2-86-69-111) at Double-A (24 G); 2.08 ERA (4.1-3-3-3) at Triple-A (1 G); 1.80 ERA (10.0-2-3-11) at MLB (4 G)
Best/Worst Tool: Fastball/control

Year in Review: In his seventh professional year, this former fifth overall pick finally stayed healthy with a normal workload and reached the big leagues.
The Good: Despite an injury history that would have most out of baseball, Rogers still has a power arsenal. He throws a 92-96 mph fastball with a bit of natural sink, and gets good spin on a 78-83 mph curveball with plenty of late break. He earns praise for his makeup and work ethic, coming all the way back after missing two full years due to shoulder issues.
The Bad: Rogers' ability to stay healthy will remain a risk for some time, as he's had multiple surgeries and still has a cross-fire delivery that takes his arm well across his body and reduces his ability to throw strikes. His changeup is a below-average offering, which combined with the mechanics, leaves many scouts projecting him as a late-innings reliever.
Ephemera: Rogers was, and remains, the only player from Maine to be selected in the first round of the MLB draft.
Perfect World Projection:�Rogers could have a future in either a bullpen or rotation role.
Fantasy Impact: It's hard to say without knowing a role.
Path to the Big Leagues: While the Brewers are likely to make more moves before spring training, as of now, Rogers is in the mix to compete for the fifth starter job.
ETA: 2011.

2. Cody Scarpetta, RHP
DOB: 8/25/88
Height/Weight: 6-3/240
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Signed: 11th round, 2007, Guilford HS (IL)
2010 Stats: 3.87 ERA (128.0-120-67-142) at Double-A (27 G)
Best/Worst Tool: Curveball/control

Year in Review: This bulky right-hander rebounded from a slow start with an excellent second half to finish among the Florida State League leaders in strikeouts.
The Good: Scarpetta began throwing more strikes as the season wore on, and he was finally able to take advantage of his stuff. His 91-94 mph fastball is a tick above average, and his plus-plus curve is the best in the system, capable of generating silly-looking swings from good hitters. He maintains his stuff deep into games and pitches with an aggressive edge that serves him well.
The Bad: Scarpetta will flash a solid changeup at times, but it remains an inconsistent pitch that needs refinement. He can get out of whack mechanically, and lose the strike zone. His big body borders on soft, and conditioning could become a bigger issue for him down the road.
Ephemera: Scarpetta had significant trouble in bases-loaded situations during the 2010 campaign, as opposing batters went 9-for-19 with four doubles and a home run against him.
Perfect World Projection: He could be an innings-eating third starter
Fantasy Impact: It'll be average for a starting pitcher, with some extra strikeouts.
Path to the Big Leagues: Scarpetta will move up to Double-A in 2011 and get his workload tested at a higher rate.
ETA: Late 2012.

Milwaukee Brewers: Top 10 Prospects
by Matt Hagen/Hardball Times

1. Mark Rogers / SP/RP / The top of Milwaukee's system has been decimated by trades, yet they are still left with a clear cut No. 1 prospect, though he may not fit into any Top-100. Rogers is another year removed from his shoulder issues, is posting good numbers—aside from his walk rate—and has elite smoke on his fastball.
2. Caleb Gindl / OF / His home run power took a step backward, but the rest of his game stayed in line with what scouts have come to expect out of Gindl. Yet it remains to be seen if his home run power will ever progress against the level of pitching he is currently facing. For a corner outfielder it could mean life or death.
3. Kyle Heckathorn / SP / His strikeout rate isn't ideal yet, but Heckathorn has a three-pitch mix, topped off by a plus change-up, that is flying under the radar. He is a breakout candidate in 2011.
4. Wily Peralta / SP / Peralta fits the mold of big-time velocity but displays little in terms of secondary stuff. His strikeout rate took a nose dive this year, but the rest of his primary numbers kept up the pace. His improved groundball rate was the big factor. Now we need to see if he can put the whole package together in 2011.
5. Cody Scarpetta / SP/RP / Scarpetta is quickly becoming a success story, after once being an 11th-round high school afterthought. His fastball has blossomed in terms of both velocity and command, but his secondary offerings lag behind, and may eventually force a move to the bullpen.
6. Kentrail Davis / OF / Despite suffering through hamstring issues all season, Davis managed to post a stellar year overall, including a good walk rate and plenty of gap power. If he puts his hamstring issue to bed, expect his speed to be an asset; however, just like Gindl, his lack of home run power may diminish his future value.
7. Amaury Rivas / SP / Rivas has an above-average three-pitch mix but shaky command at times. He is characterized as a bulldog on the mound who finds ways to work around his command issues. His age hinders his ranking, but he could soon prove to be an asset in a major-league rotation.
8. Cutter Dykstra / 3B/2B/OF / Many people forgot about Dykstra after a difficult 2009 campaign. He bounced back tremendously in 2010, showing an advanced plate approach, a little bit of power, and some useful speed. He doesn't have huge upside, but he has the makings of hard nosed ballplayer.
9. Scooter Gennett / 2B / When you look at Gennett, you definitely don't see a power hitter. Yet in his first full year he hit 39 doubles and nine home runs, and he posted a .309 batting average to top it all off. His tools don't point to those numbers holding up as he moves forward, but he can't be ignored either.
10. Logan Schafer / OF / Eric Farris received a look due to his Arizona Fall League performance and Doug Melvin endorsements. Some arms from the 2010 draft deserve attention, too. Milwaukee's farm system still has depth despite the loss of Brett Lawrie, Jacob Odorizzi, and Jeremy Jeffress. Schafer rounds out the top-10, and fits the mold of fellow farmhands Gindl and Davis offensively, although those two have power upside left.

Milwaukee Brewers: Top 10 Players Under Age 26 (as of 4/1/11)

1. Yovani Gallardo / SP
2. Mat Gamel / OF/3B/1B
3. Jonathan Lucroy / C
4. Mark Rogers / SP/RP
5. Caleb Gindl / OF
6. Kyle Heckathorn / SP
7. Zach Braddock / RP
8. Wily Peralta / SP
9. Carlos Gomez / OF
10. Cody Scarpetta / SP/RP

TEAM #29 – Milwaukee Brewers
Diamond Futures

When the eGuide is published, it is quite likely that the Brewers will be team #30—after finishing last year at #22 (TEAM #22 – Milwaukee Brewers). We have always used 130ABs and 50 IPs as our thresholds for inclusion on this list, but with the industry trend being to match Major League rookie levels—which have a service time component, Zach Braddock and his 34 Major League innings no longer qualify. That plus the expected confirmation that Jeremy Jeffress is the player to be named in the Greinke deal, is enough to make up the margin of difference between the Brewers and the White Sox. Now one could make the argument that the Brewers’ Minor League system will be taking the mound in Milwaukee this season in the form of Zack Greinke and Shawn Marcum…but that is another story.

Doug Melvin has taken the Kenny Williams approach to farm systems this offseason, dealing what some might argue were the top three players in the system. Couple that with failing to sign first round pick Dylan Covey, and you could be scratching your head as to what Melvin is doing to the Brewer Future. A closer look reveals tremendous shrewdness. By not signing Covey, the Brewers will receive the 16th selection in 2011, and are likely to have much more to choose from in what is shaping up to be a considerably deeper draft. While Lawrie and Odorizzi are nice prospects, they both possess enough questions (Lawrie as to his eventual position and Odorizzi on his secondary offerings) to keep them from the elite level of the prospect rankings. Jeffress and Alcides Escobar are players with baggage, and Lorenzo Cain is a low ceiling outfielder—something that the Brewers are extremely deep at. In return they receive two quality Major League starting pitchers—both with two years remaining on their contracts—and now possess a lineup and rotation capable of competing for the N.L. Central title.

Where you have to worry if you’re a Brewers’ fan is Melvin’s ability to rebuild the system. In eight drafts since taking over as Brewer GM, Melvin has made 63 picks in the first seven rounds, twelve of them first-rounders, and ten of them who he has signed to $1 million+ bonuses. The average selection position of the first pick has been 8th. Yet the only significant pitcher produced has been Yovanni Gallardo and the list of hitters that have accumulated 250+ Major League at bats ends at: Rickie Weeks, Tony Gwyyn, jr,, Ryan Braun, Mat Gamel, Michael Brantley, Matt LaPorta and Jonathan Lucroy. The system is fraught with low-ceiling, undersized hitters, and either power pitchers with troublesome control or control pitchers with limited power. Without a significant strategical change in their draft philosophy, it is difficult to see how the situation improves. No system in the game is weaker at the top of the rankings, and it isn’t likely to improve much in the foreseeable future.

Best Pick from 2010 – Given our placement of Gindl, one could argue that his slotting at #4 was the best pick, but since the consensus opinion in the community of experts is still selling him ‘short’ (no pun intended), we will go with the slotting of Wily Peralta at #11.

Worst Pick from 2010 – That’s easy…we believed Angel Salome could overcome his poor mechanics and succeed as a Major League backstop. We never counted on him turning into a complete ‘headcase’ who is now a marginal prospect at best.

Grade B+

1) Caleb Gindl, OF (2010 Performance Scores – Power 56; Discipline 63; First Base Rate 54; Speed 57)

Admittedly, there isn’t a weaker #1 prospect in all of baseball than Gindl, but that would have been said about any player on this list—and someone has to take the top spot. Actually Gindl is a perfect top prospect for the Brewers, because he is the poster boy representative of what this system offers—namely under-sized, under-skilled ‘grinders’. Gindl has an advanced plate-approach that should allow him to make solid contact as he continues to advance. His #9 Performance Score in the Southern League (SOL) ranked just a tick below, then teammate, Brett Lawrie. Most impressively, he held his own as a 21yo in AA—something that he has been able to do at every stop of his professional career; and his once problematic strikeout rate fell to just over 15% in 2010—the lowest in his four seasons. Defensively, he is capable of manning any of the three positions, but likely profiles best as a right-fielder. While Gindl provides a solid across-the-board skill set, none of his skills standout and he is unlikely to put up the kind of power numbers that you would ideally want from a corner outfielder. That said, his offensive upside is higher than that of former Brewer farmhand Michael Brantley, who is likely to carve out a career as a solid fourth/platoon outfielder. When we watch Gindl, we are reminded of Nate McLouth. We believe Gindl is a ‘high-floor’/’low-ceiling’ prospect that should achieve a decent amount of Major League success. With the right opportunity, he could become a league-average everyday player. Expect Gindl to begin 2011 in AAA, and see Milwaukee at some point during the season.

Grade B

2) Ryan ‘Scooter’ Gennett, 2B (2010 – Power 65; Discipline 65; First Base Rate 53; Speed 70)

With above average power and contact skills for a middle infielder, Gennett would rank higher if it weren’t for a 5’9”, 165lb build. More to the point he attacks the game both in the field and at the plate, which makes him a fan favorite. In somewhat of a breakout year, 2010 ended with Gennett posting a top ten Performance Score in the Midwest League (MWL) and 2011 should find him in the Florida State League (FSL). If Gennett is to continue his march toward a potential league average second baseman, he will have to continue to hit—as his defensive skill set and speed are merely average. There isn’t a tremendously high-ceiling with Gennett, but his bat and approach should ensure that he gets the most of his natural abilities.

3) Wily Peralta, RHP (2010 – Dominance 35; Control 38; HRrate 43; Stamina 72)

In the ‘more of the same’ category, Peralta is another player with a limited ‘ceiling’, but a skill set that provides him with a solid shot at maxing out his abilities. Peralta played 2010 as a 21yo in the SOL, where he posted the #17 Performance Score. His out pitch is his low-to-mid 90s fastball, and he complements that with average secondary offerings. While he fights occasional bouts of control issues, there is little in his make-up that suggests he can’t become a solid middle of the rotation Major League starter. Unfortunately, there is little to suggest that he can become much more than that. At 22yo, Peralta is likely to find himself in AAA to begin the 2011 season. While the Brewer rotation appears to be set, he could find time in Milwaukee before the year is out.

4) Mark Rogers, RHP (2010 – Dominance 62; Control 25; HRrate 72; Stamina 64)

The former first round pick (#5 in 2004), Rogers has yet to realize his potential due to an injury-plagued professional career. Finally healthy and pitching over 100 innings for the first time since being drafted, Rogers enjoyed a solid season in the SOL. He even made a couple of starts in Milwaukee, at the end of the season, where he once-again looked solid. Rogers throws a heavy fastball that sits comfortably in the low-to-mid 90s. He complements that with a solid curve. The downside is that he really doesn’t possess a Major League quality third offering and has never really mastered the art of control. It is for these reasons that Rogers doesn’t rank higher on a thin Brewer list. Whereas Peralta looks like a solid bet to remain in the rotation, Rogers looks destined to fill a bullpen role—despite the fact that he will be given every opportunity to remain a starter. Look for Rogers to begin the 2011 in the Nashville rotation. Should the need arise, he is likely the first pitcher to be called up and looks like a certainty to spend some significant time in the Majors—we just don’t see it being in an impact role.

5) Tyler Roberts, C (2010 – Power 79; Discipline 67; First Base Rate 37; Speed 29)

Roberts may be our favorite player on this list—and is likely the player with the highest upside. A ‘beefy’ 6’0”, 230lbs, Roberts is raw in both his offensive and defensive approaches. He possesses excellent power skills and makes surprising contact considering his long, powerful swing. There is somewhat of an all or nothing approach, however, as more than 50% of Roberts hits were for extra bases in 2010 and he possesses what could only be termed ‘base-clogging’ speed. Defensively, he possesses a powerful arm, but is often lost at times with his fundamental receiving skills. With refinement, Roberts could become a power-hitting Major League backstop, but he will be only making his full-season debut in 2011, so there is a long way from here to there.

6) Cody Scarpetta, RHP (2010 – Dominance 64; Control 28; HRrate 67; Stamina 65)

Speaking of ‘beefy’ players, the 22yo Scarpetta can block out the sun with the best of them. His fastball sits comfortably in the low-90s, and sets up his outpitch—a plus-plus curve. In 2010, Scarpetta rode them to a #14 Performance Score in the FSL. The downside is that Scarpetta’s change is still a work-in-process and he has made little improvement on his control that has caused him to allow more than 4.5 base-on-balls per 9IP. While the ‘ceiling’ isn’t extreme, he seems to have the makings of a solid mid-rotation innings eater. Refining that command will be the key to him achieving it. Look for Scarpetta to begin 2011 in the SOL, with a possible rotation shot when Marcum and Greinke’s contracts expire.

7) Kyle Heckathorn, RHP (2010 – Dominance 35; Control 64; HRrate 71; Stamina 69)

While Heckathorn’s 2010 numbers were an improvement over his 2009 debut, they still lacked the sizzle that was expected after his collegiate career. On a pure raw stuff basis, Heckathorn’s stuff was as good as any college pitcher in the 2009 draft that wasn’t named Strasburg. He throws a heavy low-90s sinker and has a slider with plus potential. At 6’6”, he has a durable frame that one can easily envision as a solid #2/#3 Major League starter. But Heckathorn has yet to find away to dominate lower level hitters the way that a 22yo should. His change still needs considerable work and without a dominating out pitch, there are questions about whether he will ever be more than back of the rotation material. 2011 will be a huge year for Heckathorn, as he is likely to return to the FSL to start the year before making a mid-season AA debut. He needs to take a big step forward.

Grade B-

8) Erik Komatsu, OF (2010 – Power 50; Discipline 75; First Base Rate 78; Speed 78)

I easily could have copied Gindl’s write-up into this space as the stories are similar—under-sized and under-skilled. The basic difference is that Komatsu appears to have the speed to play an everyday center field and actually profiles fairly well for the position. His plate discipline skills are first-rate and like most center fielders, he displays only minimal power. Komatsu parlayed all of that into a fine 2010, as he finished with the #6 Performance Score in the FSL. The downside is that Komatsu is already 23yo and doesn’t look to have much in the way of projection remaining, so we are looking at an upside of a league average center fielder. Despite his advanced development and a strong collegiate background, Komatsu will only be getting his first taste of AA in 2011. With a repeat performance of 2010, he will play his when into legitimate prospect notoriety. Without it, we may be looking at a 4th/5th OF type.

9) Khris Davis, LF (2010 – Power 79; Discipline 41; First Base Rate 70; Speed 59)

Khris and Kentrail Davis formed a solid outfield combo at Wisconsin this past summer, with Davis our slight preference of the two. Possessing plus power skills and patience enough to coax 77 walks and post a nearly .400 OBP, Davis established himself as a legitimate prospect. The downside is that Davis fanned 22% of the time—despite being a 22yo in the MWL. We liked Davis coming out of Fullerton, where he posted the #19 Performance Score in 2009. We felt the Brewers received excellent value by tabbing him in the 7th round. But we need to see Davis in a more age appropriate environment. Look for Davis to begin 2011 in the FSL, but he must reach AA by mid-season in order to continue to be viewed as a legitimate prospect. This grade is as much based on what we believe Davis is capable of as it what he has actually shown as a professional.

10) Kentrail Davis, OF (2010 – Power 49; Discipline 66; First Base Rate 69; Speed 51)

Davis is easily the most athletic player on this list, and has the tools to become a potential everyday Major League centerfielder, as he makes excellent contact and possesses average speed. Power is the question mark , for the former supplemental first round pick, as he hit only three home runs in over 400 PAs as a 22yo in A-ball. While Davis currently projects as a centerfielder, there are those that worry that his compact frame (5’9”, 195lbs) will cause him to slow down as he matures—forcing a move to left field. If that happens, there is little reason to believe that he will post the requisite power for an outfield corner, thereby relegating him to a fourth outfielder role. Davis disappointed in his 2009 FSL debut—before being demoted. He will return their to open the 2011 season, as he turns 23yo mid-season, he will need to advance to AA sometime during the year to continue being considered a legitimate prospect.

11) Tyler Thornburg, RHP (2010 – Dominance 79; Control 33; HRrate 48; Stamina 36)

If we felt confident that Thornburg could actually develop a credible off-speed pitch to go with his low-90s fastball and plus-curve, he would rank higher on this list. The Brewers third round pick in June made his professional debut in the Pioneer League where he dominated the way that a 21yo should—fanning 38 in 23 innings while allowing opposing hitters to bat a mere .171 against him. That said, there isn’t a tremendous amount of projection remaining in his 5’11” frame and he currently is a two-pitch pitcher. The upside of a solid mid-rotation is there, but we are more inclined to see him as a back of the bullpen pitcher down the road. In either case, he is likely to begin 2011 in the MWL; with a stop in the FSL, before the season ends, probable.

12) Hunter Morris, 1B (2010 – Power 73; Discipline 62; First Base Rate 30; Speed 57)
Morris’ 23 home runs at Auburn allowed him to post a top 25 Performance Score in 2010. The Brewers then selected him with their fourth round pick this past June. Power is his calling card, as it is easily his only plus-skill. While his speed may be adequate at first base, his defense is a liability almost anywhere. Morris made a solid 2010 MWL debut. While he has a tendency to fall into ruts where he pulls everything, he showed enough to believe that his bat can play at the Major League level. It will have to, as there isn’t much else to recommend. Look for Morris to begin 2011 in the FSL, with a mid-season promotion to AA in the plans.