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Bryan LaHair

Postby blbnow on Feb 11th, 2012, 3:05 am

Why does everybody think this guy wont do anything? He has had a pretty decent minor league career. Theo says he doesnt believe in AAAA players yet guy like Tryptamine swear by them and only like young prospects. 26 is the cutoff point. Cespedes is not to old and gonna be a stud. I put him in the Sammy Sosa mold. Anyway how many hrs do u see LaHair hitting? I say 33.
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Re: Bryan LaHair

Postby The Stache on Feb 11th, 2012, 4:19 am

Its just the norm. Of course, LaHair could be one of those late bloomer types and prove everyone wrong, but the odds for him being anything more than a league average player are very low.

As for HR's. I'd say if he gets 400 PA's, he'll hit 15 or so.
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Re: Bryan LaHair

Postby SymposiumX on Feb 11th, 2012, 4:25 am

I'll say 20-22 bombs.
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Re: Bryan LaHair

Postby kizzfastfists on Feb 11th, 2012, 5:39 am

Calling a player a AAAA player simply means they are a very good AAA player. Theo is right as there is no AAAA player there are big league players and minor league players, but AAAA seems to be used to describe the best career minor league players who not good enough for the big leagues. Guys like Micah Hoffpauir, who had a monster 2007 and 2008 in the minors and a great 80 ABs in the bigs at the end of the 2008 season; then showed in 2009 why he was still in the minors at 28. Then in 2010 had another very good AAA season, .898 OPS.

LaHair had never shown real power until last year. He has a monster breakout year at 28, after a good season at age 27 in AAA. Then he finishes with a good 50 ABs in the bigs. If LaHair gets 400 ABs I'll put him down for 20ish HRs. I don't think he'll get that many and we'll see Rizzo much sooner then LaHair fans would like. I expect LaHair to get about 250 ABs and hit around .250 with a .315ish OBP, .450ish SLG and 10-12 HRs. Around that time they will realize that a) Rizzo will put up better numbers in the bigs right now then LaHair will and b) Rizzo can't learn anything more in AAA.

The reason some of us are down on LeHair is his age for his progression. Similar to how we were all down on Hoffpauir. Colvin's issue wasn't age it was skill set, he just has no strike zone judgement which is why several didn't like him. Having said that, if you call every prospect a bust from day 1 you will be more right then not. As for Cespedes I'm torn on him. He holds the records for HRs in Cuba and all reports are he has very good power. He also is supposed to play very good CF defense. Everything I've read makes me think he is similar to Brett Jackson with more power and I'm very high on Jackson. Due to his age and being untested in the US it is hard to project what he will be. I keep hearing him compared to BJ Upton, Drew Stubbs and Adam Jones. Those are solid players, but not elite players. However, if he does have the gold glove defense in center and is similar to Stubbs with a bit more power he should be a solid big league player. However, he's a risk similar to bringing over a player from Japan and expecting their power to translate in the bigs and we saw how that goes first hand with Fukudome, who gave the expected OBP, but not the power that Hendry thought he would but went more in line with what other players from Japan have done in the power department.
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Re: Bryan LaHair

Postby SymposiumX on Feb 11th, 2012, 6:12 am

Good assessment, Kizz. For now, though, I am inclined to think that LaHair will get more than 250AB's for one main reason...because Hoyer already made that mistake once in rushing Rizzo up to the Bigs, and doesn't want to do the same again. So far, I see no reason to doubt what Hoyer has said regarding this. Sure, if LaHair is just atrocious and Rizzo is raking in AAA, then I could see this changing, but as of right now, I see the FO holding back on calling up Rizzo.

I, too, am torn with Cespedas. It does seem like he could turn out to just be a beast, but you have to worry a little how those numbers translate to the Bigs. If he was 5 years younger, then it is a no-brainer. Being 26, I treat his Cuban numbers more in the A-AA mark. I think some team (Miami) could get him and rush him up, which would be a mistake. He needs close to a full year in the minors before being ready for the Bigs.

I'm more high on Soler. Being only 19, he is about 3 +/- years away, which fits in line with how the team seems to be shaping up.
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Re: Bryan LaHair

Postby kizzfastfists on Feb 11th, 2012, 6:35 am

Cespedes does have the one tool that translates to all baseball games around the globe though, defense. If his defense is as good as advertised then that makes up for potential short comings with the bat. He also has power, which is valued above most others on offense right now. So his blend of defense and power in center field will get him paid and he probably advances fast as long as he is hitting for power and hitting over .250 in AA. I agree he should probably start in AA and if he rakes then half a season might all he needs in the minors.

I would definitely love to have Soler. Age, as you mention, is a big selling point on him. As for Rizzo, I don't think Theo will hold him down if he is killing AAA and it becomes clear that LaHair isn't building any trade equity with his play. If LaHair is building trade value then I think Rizzo is held down until the trade deadline, but I don't expect LaHair to be hitting well enough to be traded to a contender as the missing bat they need. I hope I'm wrong and LaHair has a monster season and the Cubs can move him for a good prospect or two at the deadline, but I just don't see it happening. Even when struggling last year Rizzo was still showing discipline and taking walks, etc. I just don't see Rizzo putting up MVP numbers in AAA as really helping him at this point.
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Re: Bryan LaHair

Postby SymposiumX on Feb 11th, 2012, 6:46 am

Best case scenario, Both LaHair and Rizzo just destroy the ball, LaHair fetches something of value at the trade deadline and Rizzo gets called up and continues to progress. It is a long-shot, but hopefully a fantastic half-season from LaHair is enough to make some teams bite.

If there is any time to take a risk with Cespedas and Soler, this is definitely it. IFA restrictions go in place after this season, so may not be a bad idea to try to land both. With more money coming off the books the next 1-2 seasons, the Cubs can take a gamble or two without being sunk.

So far, I'm very happy with the moves the FO has made this offseason. I'm not expecting much from the Cubs this season, but I can't help but be excited to watch the games and to see this NEW organization grow.

It's fucking baseball time!!
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Re: Bryan LaHair

Postby SymposiumX on Feb 11th, 2012, 6:46 am

Best case scenario, Both LaHair and Rizzo just destroy the ball, LaHair fetches something of value at the trade deadline and Rizzo gets called up and continues to progress. It is a long-shot, but hopefully a fantastic half-season from LaHair is enough to make some teams bite.

If there is any time to take a risk with Cespedas and Soler, this is definitely it. IFA restrictions go in place after this season, so may not be a bad idea to try to land both. With more money coming off the books the next 1-2 seasons, the Cubs can take a gamble or two without being sunk.

So far, I'm very happy with the moves the FO has made this offseason. I'm not expecting much from the Cubs this season, but I can't help but be excited to watch the games and to see this NEW organization grow.

It's fucking baseball time!!
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Re: Bryan LaHair

Postby anotheridiot on Feb 11th, 2012, 10:51 am

if the scouts dont watch him and he doesnt have good algorithmic numbers they dont buy it. Look, he made triple A in 2006, richie sexton was the first baseman for seattle hitting bombs and stayed there til summer of 08 when LaHair got a chance after the deadline. 2009 seattle chose russell branyon to play first base trying to win with griffey and beltre and mike carp was a prospect that moved ahead of lahair when he failed in 08.

He signed here in 2010 when derrick lee was here and maybe finally healthy from the wrist with hendry thinking world series again and nady needing to play. 2011 hendry chose pena.

so in his minor league career, he was blocked by two of the best first basemen of the decade in Richie sexton and derrick lee, then side burnered for one of the best defenders in Carlos Pena. Sounds like a whole lot of chances were afforded him to make the major league club he was with when he was 23-28 years old when most get chances.

Guess the guy sucks because he couldnt beat two Multi millionaires needing to produce who were the best at their positions and put fans in the seats. thats the other side of the coin.
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Re: Bryan LaHair

Postby kizzfastfists on Feb 11th, 2012, 11:27 am

I'm sorry, but in 2008 he couldn't even beat Jose Vidro out of the DH job. Jim Thome got traded a season after hitting 42 HRs to make room for Ryan Howard. If Seattle had thought LaHair could hit they wouldn't have kept getting aging bums to "block" him. The only thing that has ever blocked LaHair from the majors is that he isn't good enough.
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Re: Bryan LaHair

Postby tripxcore on Feb 11th, 2012, 1:06 pm

Personally, I think LaHair is going to surprise people. I don't think he will be a stud player but I do believe he will do a good job at 1B for us.
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Re: Bryan LaHair

Postby blbnow on Feb 11th, 2012, 6:35 pm

SymposiumX wrote:Best case scenario, Both LaHair and Rizzo just destroy the ball, LaHair fetches something of value at the trade deadline and Rizzo gets called up and continues to progress. It is a long-shot, but hopefully a fantastic half-season from LaHair is enough to make some teams bite.

If there is any time to take a risk with Cespedas and Soler, this is definitely it. IFA restrictions go in place after this season, so may not be a bad idea to try to land both. With more money coming off the books the next 1-2 seasons, the Cubs can take a gamble or two without being sunk.

So far, I'm very happy with the moves the FO has made this offseason. I'm not expecting much from the Cubs this season, but I can't help but be excited to watch the games and to see this NEW organization grow.

It's fucking baseball time!!



I completly agree with you. Hopefully LaHair is has value by mid-season or after the season. Signing Cespedes could be a brilliant move and speed up the rebuilding process quick. Even if he doesnt become a stud its not really that much money to risk considering the money thats coming off the books the next couple of years. I personally think he is gonna be a beast. He is just a freak athlete that does everything well. A true 5 tool player.
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Re: Bryan LaHair

Postby The Stache on Feb 16th, 2012, 5:53 pm

2012 Baseball America Winter Player Of The Year: Bryan LaHair

Good things are supposed to come to those who wait. Bryan LaHair is about to find out.

After a year of wall-to-wall production, the 29-year-old goes to Arizona penciled into the Cubs' most historically stable of positions.

LaHair, signed to a minor league contract in 2010 after four seasons stuck in Triple-A with Seattle, is in line to supplant Carlos Pena with the responsibilities of a lefthanded-hitting run producer sandwiched between righthanded-hitting regulars Starlin Castro, Alfonso Soriano, Geovany Soto and Marlon Byrd.

"I have a soft spot for guys who hit everywhere they've ever been—hit, hit, hit and continue to hit,'' said Theo Epstein, the Cubs' president of baseball operations. "… (LaHair) is an asset. We'll have to take a deeper look.''

LaHair has certainly earned the opportunity. His resume is stamped at the top "dues paid in full.''

After leading the Venezuelan League in home runs with 15 for Magallanes, LaHair can add another line to his resume: Baseball America's 2012 Winter Player of the Year.

LaHair, who played high school basketball in Massachusetts for current Mets scout J.P. Ricciardi, has taken a long road. A Clemson recruit who wound up going the draft-and-follow route, he played at St. Petersburg (Fla.) JC and signed in 2003 as a 39th-round pick in 2002. He has played 970 minor league games, including 653 in the Triple-A Pacific Coast League, where he's put up a slash line of .297/.368/.528. His numbers surged the last couple of years.

LaHair led the minor leagues with 38 home runs in 2011, setting a franchise record for Iowa. He was more than just a guy who swung for the fences however, as he delivered an OPS of 1.070. He would have been in Chicago by August except then-general manager Jim Hendry declined to trade Pena. LaHair didn't sulk, instead finishing off an MVP season in the PCL, and he was still hitting when he finally got to Wrigley in September.

In LaHair's third game with the Cubs, he delivered a two-out home run off Cincinnati's Mike Leake to tie a game in the ninth inning. He finished hitting .288 with eight extra-base hits in 59 at-bats, then signed on for more baseball over the winter, playing 47 games for Magallanes in Venezuela. He hit six homers in his first seven games there and finished with a league-high 15, including one of former Cubs teammate Carlos Zambrano.

LaHair had been scheduled to spend only about a month in Venezuela but the Navegantes convinced him to return for three more weeks in December after his fast start. He admitted the constant action left him "tired'' but in many ways it was the season of his life.

The homers off Zambrano and Leake were among 55 that LaHair hit in 198 games for the year. It was enough to make Epstein realize he'd be foolish not to let this storyline carry over into 2012.

The Cubs haven't developed a lefthanded hitter with power since they traded Rafael Palmeiro to Texas 23 years ago. Now they have two guys with a real chance, as the Epstein/Jed Hoyer management team also added 22-year-old first baseman Anthony Rizzo in a trade with the Padres. The first question to be answered is whether LaHair can build off 2011.

"The way we see it is Bryan had a terrific year last year in Triple-A and has been terrific this year in Venezuela," said Hoyer, the Cubs' general manager. "We see him as our first baseman. It's likely Anthony will start the year in Triple-A.''

Some analysts minimize LaHair's recent accomplishments because of his minor league experience. But Epstein looks at it differently, seeing a hitter that might have long ago established himself had he gotten a longer look by the Mariners or another big league club.

"There's this myth about the 4-A hitter,'' Epstein said. "Guys who perform all the way up the minor leagues, dominate Triple-A, get a cup of coffee, they hit a buck-fifty in the big leagues, and everybody labels them a 4-A hitter. The reality is, I'm not so sure there is something called a 4-A hitter. It's just (a) pretty good major league hitter who never got an opportunity . . . If you hit the right way, outperform your competition consistently and dominate minor league baseball at every level, you'll eventually hit at the big league level.''

With former manager Mike Quade continuing to play Pena into September, LaHair started 14 games in the outfield for the Cubs and just two at first base. But Epstein and Hoyer seem to see him as a full-time first baseman, not someone who can move between first and the outfield corners. That means that at some point within the next couple of years, possibly as soon as this summer, they'll have to choose between LaHair and Rizzo, who batted .331/.404/.652 with 26 homers in 93 games for Triple-A Tucson.

For the moment, the Cubs are enjoying having them both. Hoyer said he feels the Cubs have the two hitters who were the best in the minors last season.

Epstein is always on the lookout for undervalued players, and the only way he'll know LaHair's real value is to let him play.

"Look, we're looking for assets,'' Epstein said. "We're going to scratch and claw and do everything in our power—in the draft, internationally, small trades, waiver claims. We need to build assets because we don't have enough of them. We're not going to look past one that might be sitting right there in our organization."

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/pr ... 12979.html
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Re: Bryan LaHair

Postby tripxcore on Feb 16th, 2012, 6:21 pm

I still believe LaHair will be a pretty good 1B for us. Everyone tries to compare him to Micah Hoffpauir but they aren't the same player.

In Hoffpauir's minor league career, he put up an OBP of .349 and batting average of .285. In LaHair's minor league career, he put up an OBP of .370 and batting average of .298. LaHair is just a better hitter overall IMO.
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Re: Bryan LaHair

Postby SymposiumX on Feb 16th, 2012, 11:11 pm

I believe that LaHair will be better than Hoff, but I don't see him panning out to be any sort of stud. Good that he is being given a chance at a time that Rizzo coincidentally needs a little more time in the minors.
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Re: Bryan LaHair

Postby Boozer1011 on Feb 21st, 2012, 9:22 am

Kevin Goldstein said that scouts he's talked to say they've come around on LaHair.
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