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16 posts
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Bryan LaHairWhy does everybody think this guy wont do anything? He has had a pretty decent minor league career. Theo says he doesnt believe in AAAA players yet guy like Tryptamine swear by them and only like young prospects. 26 is the cutoff point. Cespedes is not to old and gonna be a stud. I put him in the Sammy Sosa mold. Anyway how many hrs do u see LaHair hitting? I say 33.
Re: Bryan LaHairIts just the norm. Of course, LaHair could be one of those late bloomer types and prove everyone wrong, but the odds for him being anything more than a league average player are very low.
As for HR's. I'd say if he gets 400 PA's, he'll hit 15 or so.
Re: Bryan LaHairI'll say 20-22 bombs.
"The dead touch the living dreaming, who in turn touch the living waking" -Heraclitus
Re: Bryan LaHairCalling a player a AAAA player simply means they are a very good AAA player. Theo is right as there is no AAAA player there are big league players and minor league players, but AAAA seems to be used to describe the best career minor league players who not good enough for the big leagues. Guys like Micah Hoffpauir, who had a monster 2007 and 2008 in the minors and a great 80 ABs in the bigs at the end of the 2008 season; then showed in 2009 why he was still in the minors at 28. Then in 2010 had another very good AAA season, .898 OPS.
LaHair had never shown real power until last year. He has a monster breakout year at 28, after a good season at age 27 in AAA. Then he finishes with a good 50 ABs in the bigs. If LaHair gets 400 ABs I'll put him down for 20ish HRs. I don't think he'll get that many and we'll see Rizzo much sooner then LaHair fans would like. I expect LaHair to get about 250 ABs and hit around .250 with a .315ish OBP, .450ish SLG and 10-12 HRs. Around that time they will realize that a) Rizzo will put up better numbers in the bigs right now then LaHair will and b) Rizzo can't learn anything more in AAA. The reason some of us are down on LeHair is his age for his progression. Similar to how we were all down on Hoffpauir. Colvin's issue wasn't age it was skill set, he just has no strike zone judgement which is why several didn't like him. Having said that, if you call every prospect a bust from day 1 you will be more right then not. As for Cespedes I'm torn on him. He holds the records for HRs in Cuba and all reports are he has very good power. He also is supposed to play very good CF defense. Everything I've read makes me think he is similar to Brett Jackson with more power and I'm very high on Jackson. Due to his age and being untested in the US it is hard to project what he will be. I keep hearing him compared to BJ Upton, Drew Stubbs and Adam Jones. Those are solid players, but not elite players. However, if he does have the gold glove defense in center and is similar to Stubbs with a bit more power he should be a solid big league player. However, he's a risk similar to bringing over a player from Japan and expecting their power to translate in the bigs and we saw how that goes first hand with Fukudome, who gave the expected OBP, but not the power that Hendry thought he would but went more in line with what other players from Japan have done in the power department.
Re: Bryan LaHairGood assessment, Kizz. For now, though, I am inclined to think that LaHair will get more than 250AB's for one main reason...because Hoyer already made that mistake once in rushing Rizzo up to the Bigs, and doesn't want to do the same again. So far, I see no reason to doubt what Hoyer has said regarding this. Sure, if LaHair is just atrocious and Rizzo is raking in AAA, then I could see this changing, but as of right now, I see the FO holding back on calling up Rizzo.
I, too, am torn with Cespedas. It does seem like he could turn out to just be a beast, but you have to worry a little how those numbers translate to the Bigs. If he was 5 years younger, then it is a no-brainer. Being 26, I treat his Cuban numbers more in the A-AA mark. I think some team (Miami) could get him and rush him up, which would be a mistake. He needs close to a full year in the minors before being ready for the Bigs. I'm more high on Soler. Being only 19, he is about 3 +/- years away, which fits in line with how the team seems to be shaping up. "The dead touch the living dreaming, who in turn touch the living waking" -Heraclitus
Re: Bryan LaHairCespedes does have the one tool that translates to all baseball games around the globe though, defense. If his defense is as good as advertised then that makes up for potential short comings with the bat. He also has power, which is valued above most others on offense right now. So his blend of defense and power in center field will get him paid and he probably advances fast as long as he is hitting for power and hitting over .250 in AA. I agree he should probably start in AA and if he rakes then half a season might all he needs in the minors.
I would definitely love to have Soler. Age, as you mention, is a big selling point on him. As for Rizzo, I don't think Theo will hold him down if he is killing AAA and it becomes clear that LaHair isn't building any trade equity with his play. If LaHair is building trade value then I think Rizzo is held down until the trade deadline, but I don't expect LaHair to be hitting well enough to be traded to a contender as the missing bat they need. I hope I'm wrong and LaHair has a monster season and the Cubs can move him for a good prospect or two at the deadline, but I just don't see it happening. Even when struggling last year Rizzo was still showing discipline and taking walks, etc. I just don't see Rizzo putting up MVP numbers in AAA as really helping him at this point.
Re: Bryan LaHairBest case scenario, Both LaHair and Rizzo just destroy the ball, LaHair fetches something of value at the trade deadline and Rizzo gets called up and continues to progress. It is a long-shot, but hopefully a fantastic half-season from LaHair is enough to make some teams bite.
If there is any time to take a risk with Cespedas and Soler, this is definitely it. IFA restrictions go in place after this season, so may not be a bad idea to try to land both. With more money coming off the books the next 1-2 seasons, the Cubs can take a gamble or two without being sunk. So far, I'm very happy with the moves the FO has made this offseason. I'm not expecting much from the Cubs this season, but I can't help but be excited to watch the games and to see this NEW organization grow. It's fucking baseball time!! "The dead touch the living dreaming, who in turn touch the living waking" -Heraclitus
Re: Bryan LaHairBest case scenario, Both LaHair and Rizzo just destroy the ball, LaHair fetches something of value at the trade deadline and Rizzo gets called up and continues to progress. It is a long-shot, but hopefully a fantastic half-season from LaHair is enough to make some teams bite.
If there is any time to take a risk with Cespedas and Soler, this is definitely it. IFA restrictions go in place after this season, so may not be a bad idea to try to land both. With more money coming off the books the next 1-2 seasons, the Cubs can take a gamble or two without being sunk. So far, I'm very happy with the moves the FO has made this offseason. I'm not expecting much from the Cubs this season, but I can't help but be excited to watch the games and to see this NEW organization grow. It's fucking baseball time!! "The dead touch the living dreaming, who in turn touch the living waking" -Heraclitus
Re: Bryan LaHairif the scouts dont watch him and he doesnt have good algorithmic numbers they dont buy it. Look, he made triple A in 2006, richie sexton was the first baseman for seattle hitting bombs and stayed there til summer of 08 when LaHair got a chance after the deadline. 2009 seattle chose russell branyon to play first base trying to win with griffey and beltre and mike carp was a prospect that moved ahead of lahair when he failed in 08.
He signed here in 2010 when derrick lee was here and maybe finally healthy from the wrist with hendry thinking world series again and nady needing to play. 2011 hendry chose pena. so in his minor league career, he was blocked by two of the best first basemen of the decade in Richie sexton and derrick lee, then side burnered for one of the best defenders in Carlos Pena. Sounds like a whole lot of chances were afforded him to make the major league club he was with when he was 23-28 years old when most get chances. Guess the guy sucks because he couldnt beat two Multi millionaires needing to produce who were the best at their positions and put fans in the seats. thats the other side of the coin.
Re: Bryan LaHairI'm sorry, but in 2008 he couldn't even beat Jose Vidro out of the DH job. Jim Thome got traded a season after hitting 42 HRs to make room for Ryan Howard. If Seattle had thought LaHair could hit they wouldn't have kept getting aging bums to "block" him. The only thing that has ever blocked LaHair from the majors is that he isn't good enough.
Re: Bryan LaHairPersonally, I think LaHair is going to surprise people. I don't think he will be a stud player but I do believe he will do a good job at 1B for us.
People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.
- Rogers Hornsby http://www.reverbnation.com/vegasloungeact
Re: Bryan LaHair
I completly agree with you. Hopefully LaHair is has value by mid-season or after the season. Signing Cespedes could be a brilliant move and speed up the rebuilding process quick. Even if he doesnt become a stud its not really that much money to risk considering the money thats coming off the books the next couple of years. I personally think he is gonna be a beast. He is just a freak athlete that does everything well. A true 5 tool player.
Re: Bryan LaHair
Re: Bryan LaHairI still believe LaHair will be a pretty good 1B for us. Everyone tries to compare him to Micah Hoffpauir but they aren't the same player.
In Hoffpauir's minor league career, he put up an OBP of .349 and batting average of .285. In LaHair's minor league career, he put up an OBP of .370 and batting average of .298. LaHair is just a better hitter overall IMO. People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.
- Rogers Hornsby http://www.reverbnation.com/vegasloungeact
Re: Bryan LaHairI believe that LaHair will be better than Hoff, but I don't see him panning out to be any sort of stud. Good that he is being given a chance at a time that Rizzo coincidentally needs a little more time in the minors.
"The dead touch the living dreaming, who in turn touch the living waking" -Heraclitus
Re: Bryan LaHairKevin Goldstein said that scouts he's talked to say they've come around on LaHair.
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