UWbrewball wrote:If the Big Ten can grab Oklahoma and Texas, that conference is going to be insane.

Expansion could radically alter tournament
By Joe Lunardi

Back in the good ol' days -- remember 2006? -- it was pretty simple to evaluate the impact of conference roulette from a basketball standpoint. With NCAA bids as coin of the realm, leagues and schools were seeking the greatest possible access to the tournament and its attendant riches.

I argued then that the "big move" of the day -- five Conference USA schools to the Big East -- would only work if the new super conference generated at least as many NCAA invitations as its prior affiliations combined. And, while it was tough sledding in the first few years (six NCAA bids in 2007, for instance), the glass ceiling was shattered in 2011 with a record 11 tournament teams from the Big East. With it, the already dwindling impact of basketball on conference membership decisions was dead and gone.

Does anyone think Texas A&M is trying to leave the Big 12 to improve its basketball fortunes? Its desired landing place -- the group of teams formerly known as the SEC West -- hasn't put a team in the NCAA tournament the past two years. This is about football and eyeballs and football and revenue and football and, of course, escaping the unwelcome, burnt orange shadow of the juggernaut in Austin. Did I mention football?

The basketball impact here is too small to measure. The Aggies will have comparable access to the NCAA tournament, similar odds to secure at-large bids and only rarely compete with the kings of the conference (trading Kansas for Kentucky). And the Aggies already schedule perfectly for the teams from the western part of the conference, posting a nonleague SOS last year of 210.

The real story in college basketball isn't Texas A&M or the Pac-16 or the destination of the Big 12 leftovers. The real story is how the law of unintended consequences will impact our sport and, in particular, the NCAA tournament. On one hand, the new 14-year, $11 billion television contract is in place for whatever version of the status quo the men's basketball committee hands us. On the other hand are the bulging eyes -- and wallets -- of the monster programs, ready to fork over almost any buyout in pursuit of the next unthinkable payday.

Imagine a landscape of four 16-team super conferences, built for football and I suspect a short bowl-driven playoff that suddenly "makes sense" when you subtract the prospect of sharing revenue with non-BCS participants. (And with all of this conference expansion, this is the direction we are headed.) These super conferences could also prefer their own basketball championship, figuring that anything close to $11 billion split 64 ways is better than the present deal split 340-plus ways.

If this type of arrangement were to happen, at least nine current power conference members could potentially be left behind. It would most likely be non-BCS football schools such as St. John's, Villanova and Georgetown. The "best of the rest" -- e.g., Xavier, Butler, Gonzaga and the CAA -- would have little choice but to join forces with the BCS outcasts and hope for a fifth or sixth non-football super conference allowing them access to the primary college basketball tournament.

In this scenario, the remaining 200-250 Division I basketball schools would likely have their futures dictated to them by the super conferences. Only your automatic qualifier is invited to our new basketball tourney? Check. Have your AQs play off for a minimal number of slots in the "real" bracket? Check. Don't like it? Form your own Division I-AA tournament and be sure to hit the lights on your way out ...

Thankfully, at least for the life of the current CBS/Turner contract, "middle ground" scenarios are more likely. Early-round upsets and Cinderella stories are good for March ratings, as long as there aren't too many George Masons playing in April. The monster programs also need mid- and low-majors to fill out their regular-season schedules. As we know, the last thing they'll give up are guaranteed wins before the home folks.

But if you think power conferences suck up too many at-large bids today, just wait. The days of a Pac-16 team with a 6-12 conference record taking VCU's spot may be closer than anyone wants to believe. It won't matter that a VCU or a Northern Iowa can actually beat Kansas on a neutral floor. It will only matter that mid- and low-majors have even more hurdles in their path.

Don't ever forget that, at the grown-ups table, college basketball isn't much more than a snack. This is evolution and, like it or not, only the strongest survive.

http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college ... id=6943283

medicalgary33 wrote:Why not create a 5th super conference?

Baylor, Vandy, Northwestern, Boise State, TCU, Houston, SMU, ect. There are 16 more teams out there you could place in various places, to allow the teams already in AQ conferences to stay, and grant Boise and TCU the access they have MORE than proven they deserve over the last few years.

sausagepeteza wrote:

medicalgary33 wrote:Why not create a 5th super conference?

Baylor, Vandy, Northwestern, Boise State, TCU, Houston, SMU, ect. There are 16 more teams out there you could place in various places, to allow the teams already in AQ conferences to stay, and grant Boise and TCU the access they have MORE than proven they deserve over the last few years.

I honestly didn't really think about it too much. I spent about half an hour in my tax class just doing the big 4. All the 4 I mentioned make a lot of sense, but I don't think having schools like Vandy and Boise State in the same conference makes much sense. I can't figure out how to make another super conference without getting nonsensical with geography. But the best remaining could make a pretty decent conference...

- Boise State
- TCU
- BYU
- Baylor
- Vandy
- Northwestern
...After that it it's a bit of a crap shoot with teams like SDSU, Fresno, Hawaii, Air Force, Houston, SMU, UNLV, Nevada, UCF, E. Carolina, Central/Western Michigan, Miami (OH), Tulsa, etc. all having decent to very good years in recent memory. I don't know, it's fun to think about, I'm sure there's been very similar ideas by many.

sausagepeteza wrote:It does kick some teams out of power conferences - notably, Baylor, Vandy, and Northwestern, all of whom I don't really think belong in their conferences

TonyPee wrote:

sausagepeteza wrote:It does kick some teams out of power conferences - notably, Baylor, Vandy, and Northwestern, all of whom I don't really think belong in their conferences

Really? Baylor is solid. Northwestern is more worthy than Indiana.

NCAA already has enough of a headache trying to justify why Boise State, TCU and Utah (among others) are essentially ineligible for the National Championship. Could you imagine if they attempt to boot schools out completely???

sausagepeteza wrote:SW
- Missouri
- Nebraska
- Illinois
- Notre Dame